Really Pissed Off!

In recent weeks, President Obama has been meeting with his military and foreign affairs advisors regarding our mission in Afghanistan. General Stanley McCrystal has openly requested 40,000 more troops to “avoid failure” in Afghanistan. Why the delay in the decision? Perhaps it is a decision as to what our mission in Afghanistan is, and why Pakistan may well hold the trump card.

There are certain facts regarding Afghanistan, which cannot be overlooked. Unlike other nations, Afghanistan is tribal, with little national identity. The largest of these tribes or ethnic groups are the Pashtuns, which make up about 40 percent of the population. They are primarily located in a broad area from the center of the country to the southern border of Pakistan. The second largest tribe is the Tajiaks, who occupy from the center to the northeastern borders of the country and make up approximately 20 percent of the population. The next three tribes include the Uzbeks, the Hazaras and the Aimaq. There are at least eight more ethnic groups that make up what we know as Afghanistan. No foreign country has been successful in occupying the country. The only period when Afghanistan was ruled as a nation was by its own people, from 1709 to 1826, by the Ghilzai Empire to the Sadozai Durrani Empire, during which time they defeated the Persian Safavid Empire, which the mighty Ottoman Empire was unable to do. This is the base of their society. If our mission is nation building, it is a totally lost cause. If, however, our mission was to remove Al Qaeda from a stronghold in Afghanistan, then our mission is nearly complete. U.S. Intelligence estimates that there are no more than 100 members of Al Qaeda operating in Afghanistan. Where did the go? They went south to Pakistan and that will be the key for success, providing the elimination of Al Qaeda is our mission in Afghanistan.

As the Pashtuns pay little attention to international borders and more to tribal territory, there is no difference between being in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Among the Pushtuns are the Taliban, some of whom are loyal to Al Qaeda and some who are not. Pakistan has had an “understanding” with the Taliban since the fall of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, but that is quickly falling apart. Pakistan found this useful, while she centered her attention to India and the Kashmir District in their age old struggle for the territory. What has happened is that the Taliban has decided that they are no longer restricted to the Northern Territories of Pakistan, and are resisting any attempt to restrain them. Only recently has Pakistan begun to take the initiative against both Al Qaeda and those Taliban tribes who support them. Pakistan is caught in the middle of identifying who exactly, is the enemy? Here is where our mission should be focused.

Unfortunately, we may have to send in more troops into Afghanistan to try to complete our mission, but it would be for a short period. It all depends on what Pakistan does on the other side of the border. The first mission is to have India assure Pakistan that they are behind whatever measures it takes to secure its northern border. It is in India’s best interest, as the result of not doing so could bring an Islamic Fundamentalist regime to Islamabad, with nuclear capabilities. Although we cannot supply troops, nor do we want to; we can supply the Pakistan government extended military aid to deal with the Northern Territories. Our presence in the region is the problem, not the solution. If we can reinforce the obvious that Pakistan’s survival has little to do with India and has a great deal with the Taliban’s control of the Northern territories, our mission will be to assist to help secure the Southern Border of Afghanistan while Pakistan secures the Northern territories. It would be a joint military action, Afghan/NATO working with the Pakistani Army towards the border of Afghanistan. Will this solve the problem for Afghanistan? Unfortunately, it will probably do little to resolve what is irresolvable. More importantly, it will create a stronger Pakistan and that’s our present mission, whether we like it or not! As for Afghanistan, we join a long list of celebrities including Alexander the Great and the Safavid Empires to England and the Soviet Union who have been unsuccessful in achieving their mission. The central government remains corrupt and the tribal areas will pay more allegiance to their peers and to Islam than they will to Kabul. Our role in Afghanistan will be to train their armed forces and to supply them what they need for their nation building, not ours. We have no control as to what form of government the Afghans choose. Remember, it was the Northern Alliance and our Special Forces, which defeated the Taliban! We played a secondary role. Remember, it was the Afghanistan War which helped bring down the Soviet Union. We have a very short memory!

Dan Rather on Afghanistan